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Go Cardinals |
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All St. Louis Cardinals Baseball all the time
by cbk
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Alas
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Over at The Bird House Brian Walton writes an article about trading players. I can't link directly too it, but the gist is: Who can we trade?
Brian was kind enough to send me an email which I'll quote:
Hello, Josh. I like your trade idea, but I think it is the dream of a Cardinal fan. I do not think it is realistic. I think you're wrong about the value the Mariners place on Soriano. He is highly prized, just as the poster you quote says.
He's right of course. Somebody called them schoolyard trades, or a wouldn't it be great trade. They almost always depend on the other parties ignorance. (Funny Story: When I was a kid I collected baseball cards. I'd trade them with a kid who lived accross the street from me, and after a few months of me sharking him daily his dad got fed up and used a pen to mark the valuable cards he shouldn't trade. )
I sincerely doubt they would bite on Edmonds for he and Winn, who just signed for two years, $7.25M. They would want to push Garcia, who makes $6.875M, making a Garcia/Winn for Edmonds deal a salary increase for the Cardinals.
Yeah, and Garcia/Winn + salary isn't remotely worth it for the Cardinals.
The M's still could take the Sasaki money and buy Maddux or Pudge or whatever they want and have the best of both worlds.
That's the rub: It's a great deal for the Cardinals, but there's no incentive for the Mariners to actually do it.
Finally, are the Mariners on JED's approved trade list? If not, how much more would it cost to buy that out?
Good hot stove fodder, but that's about it.
Brian
P.S. Edmonds becomes a 10 and 5 man after this season, making it impossible to trade him without his consent. So, I agree with you that if he were to be traded, the time is soon upon us. I just don't see the Mariners being the ones now to take him.
This is the part I loved, after taking apart my logic and rational on a piece by piece basis, Brian still manages to convey that I'm not a complete ass or anything, I'm just wrong. If there's a 'Conversing through the Internet for Dummies' book, they could use this letter as the perfect howto.
The summary though is the Cardinals are probably not trading anybody. So we've got Edmonds for another year. What can we expect? Baseball Prospectus released 2004 Pecota so let's take a look:
Jim Edmonds Projected for 2004:
362 at bats, 22 home runs, .380/.524 line.
Pecota thinks Jim Edmonds isn't going to play a ton next year (although in his chat Nate Silver noted that Pecota tends to loball at bats). I don't suppose that's news really, but it is a little disturbing. It's even worse when you consider that Kerry Robinson is the only player the Cardinals have who can impersonate a center fielder (Reggie Sanders and Ray Lankford were both centerfielders in their early days, but neither is going to be playing their much next year. I'd say at all, but it is La Russa).
When JD Drew was traded it was to free up money for pitching. With no pitching being signed the trade is starting to look bad. A backup centerfielder would be very useful to the Cards right now.
--cbk
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Somethign To Think About
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Over at USS Mariner there's a running discussion about trading for Carlos Beltran
The money quote:
The offer I came up with was Winn, Justin Leone, Jose Lopez, and Rett Johnson for Beltran. If Baird mentions Rafael Soriano, you hang up the phone. Players like Soriano just don't get traded, and there's no reason to give him up.
I've started to think that the Jocketty should call up the Mariners and make an offer:
Jim Edmonds for Winn and Soriano.
Everybody knows that the Mariners recently got a $9 million dollar windfall. Everybody also knows that the Cardinals are trying to sign Albert Pujols to a long term deal. Jim Edmonds is one of the best center fielders in the Majors, but like Branch Rickey said "better to trade em a year to early than a year to late". But he's 33, and last year he played in 137 games. He's getting older, and he is injury prone. He just had his best year at the plate in his career. His value will never be higher. He'll make $9 million this year, $10 million in 2005, and $12 million in 2006.
The Cardinals could use the money freed up to offset the Pujols contract. They need a Center fielder, so they have to take Winn (or suffer a year of Robinson as a starter in Center). Because of Winn's contract they might get some cash out of the deal as well. Soriano has been well documented by the USS Mariner crew, A young talented pitcher who could make the Major League rotation is something the Cardinals desperatly need.
VORP last year:
Edmonds 54.3
Winn 25.2
Soriano 25.1
Going forward if Soriano starts he's likely to be better than that, while Edmonds is kind of a wildcard. He could repeat that number, play 10 more games next year and surpass it, or tank completely (I wonder what PECOTA thinks?). This is a decent deal for both teams. The Mariners pick up a premier offensive talent, the Cardinals get a young pitcher and save some money. It's a pretty straightforward now vs later: In the short term the Mariners get better, but in the long term the Cardinals get better (money room, and Soriano getting better).
Would the Mariners take it? Maybe. They do undervalue Soriano, and Edmonds is a big shiny toy that would address one of their weaknesses. But the same reasons the Cards want to trade him work against them trading him. As for the Cardinals they would have to work hard to sell this deal as 'look how good Soriano is' and 'Now Pujols is locked in for sure'.
My personal feeling is that getting rid of Edmonds contract (which I think is going to be a millstone the last two years of the deal) and getting Soriano make the pain next year worth it. This is a rebuilding move for the Cards for sure, but it's not one that sinks their hopes completely next year.
--cbk
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